Dec 17th 2019
We just had Black Friday sales all over the country and we all know the dishonesty embroiled with the retail industry. The stores mark the product 100% higher than normal, and then on Black Friday, they give you 50% off for only 2 hours- a formula that only benefits the "house". So what is it about buying points in an NFL game that is similar to this? Well, I can personally bear witness to the conception that when a sportsbook lines manager sees a bettor buying points, they hear nothing but the cash registers ringing! As this marks the presence of a true "square" gambler. What is a square bettor? Simply put they are the people who keep the sportsbooks in business with their novice tactics. I know of one sportsbook in Vegas that even goes as far as giving a person FREE Drink Vouchers and Credit for a FREE Hotel Room if they buy points on any bet over $500. Why would the sportsbook do this? Because they know it's a customer they want to keep over a full season, and they would do anything to make this customer feel at home with their book.
So let's use +2.5 points as an example in NFL betting. It may seem like perfect sense to buy a half point, or even a point, to make the line +3 or +3.5, right? WRONG! Even if it means you cashing in on a particular game, it does not matter - as this is a losing strategy for any long-term professional bettor. All you are doing is giving half of your profits away to the sportsbook, who is already charging you a vig of ten cents to bet there!
Let's break this down first off, to buy a half of point, at most sportsbooks cost 25 cents extra (as 2.5 is a key number). So what this translates to is that if the line is TEAM A +2.5 -110, to buy this up to 3 - the cost would be TEAM A +3 -135. So it means that if you are betting on the normal spread of 2.5 (without buying any points) you are risking $110 to $100 profit, and when you buy the hook, you are now risking $135 to win $100 profit. If you want to take this a step further and buy a full point to make TEAM A +3.5 you are now risking $160 to win $100 profit as the new line is TEAM A +3.5 -160.
Over the full NFL season, this is a losing plan of action. I cannot stress this enough. But you are wondering how can this be, as if the team losses by a field goal you are now turning that TEAM A +2.5 bet into a winner instead of a loser, right? Well let's take this back since 2004 (to give us a better understanding of how this translates into loss money). If you bet a team that is +2.5 points in a NFL game, since 2004, you are up a total of 10.1 units for an amazing return of 7.7% ROI. Now if you bought the hook on the same games and made the team +3 points, since 2004, you are only up 5.6 units for 4.2% ROI. What does all this mean you may wonder, well simply put - you are giving away HALF YOUR PROFITS long-term when you do not need to! It's like the sportsbook is taking a cut of your money when you win, even after you pay the vig! To take this even a step further, since 2004, if you bet those same teams who were +2.5 on the MONEYLINE your profits are up 15.7 units with an unheard of 11.8% ROI. We will go into that further in another article, but this just shows you what VALUE means.
Now what can you do as a bettor? The first thing you can do is make a rule to NEVER BUY POINTS in any situation! The next thing you can do is point shopping! This is a much more profitable shopping instead of buying points, you find other sportsbooks who have the number you want to buy. For example, just last weekend at Pinnacle Sportsbook, had an nfl game between the Browns and Cardinals that closed at 2.5 points, but at the Draftkings sportsbook in New Jersey, the closing number was 3 in that same game! It pays to have multiple outs, as you didn't have to buy the hook. By the way in that game, the underdog Cardinals won outright! The last thing you can do as a gambler, is signup at Win60Percent.com - as our handicapping team takes everything into consideration and gives you the best number on the games. For instance, Win60percent Members had the CARDINALS +140 on the moneyline as a play last weekend!